Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 11009 48206 352 104 103 142
March 02 2021 11018 48322 354 104 95 147
March 03 2021 11033 48406 355 105 106 149
March 04 2021 11058 48511 356 105 96 139
March 05 2021 11030 48562 356 105 92 128
March 06 2021 11042 48606 356 105 85 123
March 07 2021 11046 48667 356 105 73 123
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 13% 9 0.08% 11 0.1%
10-19 1 0.9 21.7% 15 0.11% 22 0.16%
20-29 0 0.6 13% 9 0.04% 21 0.1%
30-39 0 0.1 2.9% 2 0.01% 5 0.04%
40-49 0 0.4 10.1% 7 0.07% 15 0.14%
50-59 2 1.3 23.2% 16 0.13% 22 0.18%
60-69 0 0.4 5.8% 4 0.03% 8 0.07%
70+ 1 1.0 10.1% 7 0.07% 15 0.14%
All ages 4 5.3 100% 69 0.07% 119 0.11%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 7044 28406 222 92 51 74
March 02 2021 7052 28475 222 92 52 76
March 03 2021 7057 28527 222 93 48 73
March 04 2021 7065 28569 222 93 56 76
March 05 2021 7072 28600 222 93 59 79
March 06 2021 7077 28638 225 93 64 77
March 07 2021 7080 28656 225 93 59 71
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
10-19 0 0.1 6.8% 4 0.05% 9 0.11%
20-29 2 0.9 18.6% 11 0.15% 7 0.1%
30-39 1 0.4 5.1% 3 0.04% 1 0.01%
40-49 1 0.4 8.5% 5 0.06% 4 0.05%
50-59 0 1.1 20.3% 12 0.12% 19 0.2%
60-69 -1 0.6 15.3% 9 0.11% 15 0.18%
70+ 0 1.6 25.4% 15 0.21% 15 0.21%
All ages 3 5.3 100% 59 0.09% 71 0.11%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 5367 18751 236 76 85 113
March 02 2021 5369 18761 237 76 74 113
March 03 2021 5393 18790 238 76 94 126
March 04 2021 5401 18834 238 76 96 131
March 05 2021 5412 18854 237 76 103 130
March 06 2021 5421 18863 238 76 100 126
March 07 2021 5426 18882 238 76 99 127
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 4% 4 0.07% 6 0.11%
10-19 0 0.9 8.1% 8 0.15% 12 0.22%
20-29 0 1.0 12.1% 12 0.27% 17 0.38%
30-39 1 2.0 22.2% 22 0.41% 24 0.44%
40-49 0 0.6 9.1% 9 0.18% 14 0.28%
50-59 1 2.6 23.2% 23 0.34% 29 0.43%
60-69 2 1.1 14.1% 14 0.22% 16 0.25%
70+ 1 0.9 7.1% 7 0.11% 9 0.14%
All ages 5 9.1 100% 99 0.22% 127 0.28%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 12232 52957 363 78 117 198
March 02 2021 12246 53035 365 80 122 187
March 03 2021 12268 53183 369 80 141 182
March 04 2021 12277 53248 370 80 144 184
March 05 2021 12291 53326 372 80 134 163
March 06 2021 12287 53383 372 80 116 154
March 07 2021 12291 53464 372 80 112 155
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.3 12.4% 15 0.13% 19 0.16%
10-19 1 0.4 9.1% 11 0.07% 17 0.1%
20-29 1 2.1 17.4% 21 0.1% 30 0.14%
30-39 0 0.4 10.7% 13 0.1% 16 0.12%
40-49 0 1.3 14.9% 18 0.13% 24 0.18%
50-59 0 0.7 13.2% 16 0.11% 23 0.16%
60-69 2 2.0 14% 17 0.12% 20 0.14%
70+ 0 0.4 8.3% 10 0.08% 15 0.12%
All ages 4 8.7 100% 121 0.1% 164 0.14%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 40571 322133 1241 273 827 1254
March 02 2021 40577 322084 1241 273 716 1231
March 03 2021 40641 322293 1244 273 695 1201
March 04 2021 40763 322804 1246 278 762 1179
March 05 2021 40814 323082 1249 278 773 1070
March 06 2021 40895 323450 1251 278 772 1034
March 07 2021 40944 323893 1253 278 753 998
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 3.3 4% 30 0.05% 46 0.08%
10-19 7 11.0 24.4% 184 0.26% 254 0.36%
20-29 12 18.3 33.1% 249 0.24% 333 0.32%
30-39 7 8.6 11.8% 89 0.12% 113 0.15%
40-49 7 8.0 9.8% 74 0.11% 97 0.15%
50-59 7 6.4 9.8% 74 0.11% 88 0.13%
60-69 1 3.9 4.8% 36 0.07% 45 0.08%
70+ 3 1.6 2.3% 17 0.03% 22 0.04%
All ages 49 61.0 100% 753 0.14% 998 0.18%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 01 2021 564268 2629622 26158 6412 5772 8560
March 02 2021 564592 2631712 26222 6440 5420 8260
March 03 2021 565131 2634999 26279 6458 5556 8142
March 04 2021 565808 2639148 26330 6470 5810 8086
March 05 2021 566158 2642182 26387 6477 5594 7662
March 06 2021 566364 2644343 26432 6478 5053 7192
March 07 2021 566693 2647864 26457 6481 4542 7118
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 21 30.7 7.3% 331 0.05% 525 0.08%
10-19 50 65.0 17.4% 790 0.1% 1185 0.16%
20-29 54 67.4 16.5% 749 0.1% 1171 0.15%
30-39 49 51.3 13.6% 618 0.08% 959 0.13%
40-49 42 55.6 13.6% 617 0.09% 991 0.14%
50-59 55 60.6 15.7% 715 0.09% 1088 0.13%
60-69 36 42.7 10.5% 477 0.06% 762 0.1%
70+ 22 17.1 5.4% 245 0.04% 437 0.07%
All ages 329 390.4 100% 4542 0.08% 7118 0.12%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
11.4 16.2 10 5.9 11 7.1%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11 5.3 4.1 11.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
28.1 9.1 7.7 30.3%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
13.9 10.3 14.1 7.4 10.9 9.7%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
18.3 35.7 32.1 61 97.6 16.9%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
12.2 15.7 15.5 390.4 617.4 11.5%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5565"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red